Preaching in the Wilderness: Exploring the Macro Dynamics of Political Participation

Research on the relationship between contextual factors and individual-level participation has offered a new frontier in the study of political activity. These studies push beyond the core characteristics highlighted in the Civic Voluntarism Model to understand how individuals respond to political, economic, and social environments. This paper builds on the contributions of both of these literatures to explore how national, political, and economic contexts shape aggregate rates of participation from 1973-1994. The central argument is that changes in the political and economic context produce alterations in individuals’ political orientations, and these changed orientations drive fluctuations in aggregate behavior. Based on standard time series techniques, the results show that economic difficulties, competition over policymaking authority, and presidential elections act as stimulants for aggregate participation. The message is simple: civic participation is a dynamic response to a constantly changing world. ∗We would like to thank the star lab for use of its resources in the writing and analysis of this paper. Additionally, we are thankful to Mark Franklin and participants in the University of Rochester’s American Politics Working Group for helpful comments and criticisms. The normal caveat applies. Direct correspondence to Matthew B. Platt; Department of Political Science, University of Rochester; Rochester, NY 14627 [email protected] Context is the frontier of participation research. The core contributions toward our understanding of why people participate generally focus on individuals’ attributes – socioeconomic status, resources, and political orientations (Verba, Schlozman and Brady 1995). One of the greatest advantages of this approach has now become one of its most serious drawbacks: it explains participation decisions within some generic democracy, a world devoid of context. Unfortunately, we do not live in that generic world. Our world is full of continually changing political, economic, and social environments that structure how we make decisions about whether, when, and how to engage in political activity. Research on contextualized participation is blazing new trails toward a richer understanding of individual political behavior; one that conceives of participation as a response to political, economic, and social realities. However, that is not to suggest that there is no longer any place for the accumulated knowledge captured in the Civic Voluntarism Model (Verba, Schlozman and Brady 1995; Brady, Verba and Schlozman 1995; Burns, Schlozman and Verba 2001). Studies of context accept the fundamental nature of these core contributions but seek to exploit the potential flexibility offered by political orientations to confront a more dynamic world of urban sprawl (Oliver 1999; Humphries 2001), political party mobilizations (Rosenstone and Hansen 1993; Gershtenson 2002; Hill and Leighley 1993), descriptive representation/empowerment (Bobo and Gilliam 1990; Gay 2001, 2002; Griffin and Keane 2006; Lawless 2004), and anti-terrorism policies (Cho, Gimpel and Wu 2006). Much of this context-based research is limited in fully addressing the dynamic aspect of participation because they rely on cross-sectional research designs that provide insight into how contextual features differ across sub-national units instead of how these features change over time. This study adopts a longitudinal approach to context that has the dual benefits of dealing explicitly with how participatory behavior is altered by time-varying factors and nationalizes the measures of context to more broadly envision non-voting participation as a response to political and economic circumstances. Such an approach allows one to question how the revival of political parties impacts behavior beyond the vote, what are the participatory consequences of institutional dynamics, and what are the broader ramifications of elections for non-voting activity? The point is that static considerations of participation are not capable of dealing with the full range of interesting questions involving